Natural variability has dominated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1900

Abstract There is debate about slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key component global climate system. Some focus on sea surface temperature (SST) slightly cooling in parts subpolar North despite widespread ocean warming. SST influenced by AMOC, especially decadal timescales and beyond. The local could thus reflect AMOC diminishing heat transport, consistent with model responses to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we show from prevalence natural variability since 1900. This historical simulations for 1900–2014 predicting average 1 Sv at 30° N after 1980, which within range internal multidecadal derived models’ preindustrial control runs. These results highlight importance systematic sustained in-situ monitoring systems that can detect attribute high confidence an anthropogenic signal.